The Economy Finally Seems Stable — So What's the Outlook for 2025?

What's Happening

Economy

The Economy Finally Seems Stable — So What's the Outlook for 2025?

What's going on: After years of economic uncertainty, 2024 is closing with signs of stability not seen since before the pandemic. Inflation has cooled, unemployment remains low, and the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates for the third time this year. The Fed wrapped up its final meeting of 2024 with a widely-expected quarter-point rate cut. But the real headline was its outlook for 2025. In September, the Fed projected a slightly rosier inflation picture for next year (2.1%), but yesterday, it revised that number to 2.5%. What changed? Donald Trump was elected president. Economists say the higher inflation forecast signals a cautious approach from the Fed as it braces for potential economic turbulence as Trump begins his second term.

What it means: The Fed’s decisions suggest borrowing costs for Americans — on everything from credit cards to mortgages — are likely to remain higher than expected in the new year. That’s fueling anxiety for consumers and businesses alike (many CEOs are trying to cozy up to Trump while also sounding the alarm about the costs of his plans). As for what future interest rate decisions might look like, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is adopting a wait-and-see approach. He said, “It’s not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture, you just slow down.”

Related: Is Your Credit Card Rewards Program Scamming You? (USA Today)

International

Judges Rule In France’s Mass Rape Trial

Disclaimer: The following story mentions sexual assault and rape, which could be triggering to some readers.

What's going on: France’s historic mass rape trial has come to an end, with judges finding Dominique Pelicot and 50 other men guilty. In court, Dominique admitted to drugging his now ex-wife, Gisèle Pelicot, without her knowledge for nearly a decade so that he and dozens of other men could rape her while she was unconscious. His recordings of the encounters provided authorities with evidence and allowed them to track down many of the alleged abusers. During her testimony, Gisèle said she “would never have imagined a man could do this.” Since the trial began, she’s emerged as a symbol of strength and hope for many survivors of sexual assault. As one supporter put it: “She’s become a figurehead for feminism.”

What it means: Many hope the trial will push French lawmakers to address sexual violence and drug-facilitated rapes — especially since French law doesn’t mention “consent” in its definition of rape. From the beginning, Gisèle waived her anonymity in the case and insisted on an open trial in an effort to change the culture of shame. BBC reported that Gisèle was resting her head on a wall as her ex-husband’s verdict was read. Now, Dominique has been sentenced to a maximum of 20 years. At 72-years-old, that means he could spend the rest of his life in prison. One French newspaper, Libération, called it “a verdict for the future.”

Related: The Unfathomable Betrayal of Gisèle Pelicot (The Cut)

International

Tariffs, Tantrums, and Trudeau’s Tumble — Canada Braces for Impact 

What's going on: Canada’s winter arc is not off to a great start. Like many other countries, America’s northern neighbor is struggling with a housing crisis, inflation, an influx of migrants, and, now, a political crisis. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing growing calls to resign after his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, abruptly quit. Once Trudeau’s most powerful and loyal minister, she bowed out over Canada’s handling of President-elect Donald Trump’s threats to impose tariffs as high as 25%. She also accused Trudeau of focusing on “costly political gimmicks.” Her resignation has set off a wave of calls (even from within his own party) for Trudeau to step down. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who’s likely eyeing Trudeau’s job, said the PM has “lost control of everything.” O, Canada. 

What it means: If Trudeau doesn’t resign, Parliament could call a no-confidence vote, triggering an early election that the Conservative Party would likely win. However, some political analysts expect Trudeau to step down, allowing the Liberals to handpick an interim prime minister until the next election. Trump hasn't missed the opportunity to pour salt in Trudeau’s wounds between his earlier comments suggesting Canada become the “51st state” and calling Freeland “totally toxic.” One expert told The New York Times that Trump believes Canada will welcome new leadership in 2025 so he’s “just having fun,” but also noted he “is creating chaos in Canada.” However, if the country does get a new PM, it could reshape trade relations across North America — especially if Canada folds to Trump’s demands. 

Related: Canada Implements New Border Rules in Bid To Get on Trump’s Good Side (BBC)

Correction: An earlier version of the Daily Skimm newsletter from December 18th stated that Taylor Swift had an Eras-themed birthday party. It has not been confirmed to be a birthday party for the singer.

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